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Price-to-Win Analysis

$249

What price wins this contract? Stop guessing and start calculating. Statistical analysis across 30M+ real federal awards in your NAICS code — percentile ranges, competition density, and a data-backed recommended bid range.

What You Get

A statistically rigorous pricing analysis generated from real federal award data — not estimates, not benchmarks from a consultant's spreadsheet.

Pricing Percentile Ranges (10th-90th)

See exactly where winning bids land for your NAICS code. Know the floor, the ceiling, and the sweet spot — calculated from real award data.

Competition Density Analysis

How many firms bid on contracts like yours? Is the market crowded or wide open? We analyze bid frequency and winner concentration.

Contract Type Guidance

FFP, T&M, cost-plus — which type dominates your NAICS? What pricing structures do winning bidders use? Data-driven guidance for your bid strategy.

Recommended Bid Range

A statistically-derived price range optimized for your specific opportunity size and NAICS code. Not a guess — a calculation.

Historical Award Trends

How has pricing shifted over the past 3 years in your market? Are award values trending up, down, or flat? Plan your bid with full context.

“Why not just use ChatGPT?”

No LLM can run percentile analysis across 30M real contract awards in your NAICS code.

Ask ChatGPT "what should I bid on a $3M IT services contract?" and you'll get a generic answer based on training data from 2023. Our analysis runs live SQL queries across 30M+ actual FPDS contract awards — computing real percentile distributions, winner-specific pricing patterns, and competition density for your exact NAICS code and contract size. Every number in your report is calculated, not generated.

30M+ real awards

Every FPDS record since 2001

Statistical percentiles

percentile_cont on live data

NAICS-specific

Filtered to your exact market

Sample Insights

Here's what a Price-to-Win Analysis looks like for NAICS 541512 (Computer Systems Design). Your report will be specific to your NAICS and opportunity.

NAICS 541512 — IT Consulting

Median award: $2.4M

25th percentile: $680K | 75th percentile: $8.1M

Competition Density

4.7 average bidders per award

Below-average competition — favorable win probability

Contract Type Split

62% FFP, 28% T&M, 10% Cost-Plus

FFP dominates — price competitiveness is the primary differentiator

Recommended Bid Range

$1.8M - $3.2M for a $2.5M opportunity

Based on 40th-65th percentile — balances competitiveness and margin

Price to Win, Not to Lose

The difference between winning and losing a federal contract often comes down to pricing. Get the data to price it right.

Get Price-to-Win Analysis — $249

No account required. Pay once, receive instantly.

This is a snapshot.
SourceBridge does this continuously.

SourceBridge runs pricing analysis on every matched opportunity with — automatically. He factors in competition density, incumbent pricing patterns, and your win history to recommend optimal bid ranges before you even open the RFP.

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